4 major cyclones in 5 years in Gujarat; Cyclones in the Arabian Sea increased by 52% in the last 20 years
Recently Cyclone Biparjoy passed through Gujarat causing devastation. The number of cyclones in Gujarat has been increasing for the past few years. Gujarat, which has the longest coastline in the country, has experienced 4 major storms in the last five years. Then the question arises as to why the number of cyclones is increasing along the coast of Gujarat. According to the Indian Institute of Science Education and Research (IISER), cyclones originating in the Arabian Sea have increased by 52 percent in the last 20 years. The biggest reason behind it is considered to be the rising temperature of the sea surface due to global warming. As the entire coast of Gujarat touches the Arabian Sea, there are more chances of cyclones in Gujarat in the coming time as well. Because the surface temperature of the Arabian Sea has increased by 1.2°C to 1.4°C during the last decade.
Why is the cold Arabian Sea warming?
For the past one year, unusual activities have been observed in the Arabian Sea. Not only the number of cyclones in the Arabian Sea, but also their intensity is increasing. Sea surface temperatures in the Arabian Sea have increased by 1.2°C to 1.4°C during the last decade. Compared to the Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal, the Arabian Sea used to be relatively cold but is now warming. Due to which the number of cyclones is also increasing. According to a research in the journal Nature, there has been a 52 percent increase in cyclonic storms in the Arabian Sea in the last 20 years. While the Bay of Bengal has decreased by 8 percent. The duration of cyclones originating in the Arabian Sea has also increased by 80 per cent during the same period, while the duration of very severe cyclones has increased by 260 per cent.
Cyclone occurrence was rare in the Arabian Sea until 1995. Five cyclones hit the West Coast in 2019, which is usually one per year. This was the highest number of cyclones observed in the Arabian Sea. Very severe cyclones are being seen in the Arabian Sea. A very severe cyclone had never hit the Arabian Sea before the year 2000. 7 percent of the world's total tropical cyclones originate in the Arabian Sea.
The surface temperature of the Arabian Sea has increased by 1.2°C to 1.4°C in 10 years.
The surface temperature of the Arabian Sea has increased by 1.2°C to 1.4°C in 10 years.
.Gujarat experienced more than 120 cyclones in 100 years
Gujarat has faced 4 major cyclones in the last five years. Cyclone Vayu in 2019, Cyclone Nisarga in 2020, Cyclone Taute in 2021 and Cyclone Biperjoy in 2023. Earlier, Gujarat has faced four major cyclones in 20 years starting from 1998. According to the Gujarat State Climate Action Plan on Climate Change report, Gujarat has experienced more than 120 cyclones in the last 100 years. Due to this change in the temperature of the Arabian Sea, the chances of storms on the coast of Gujarat increase. Cyclones form due to warm Arabian Sea, weak monsoon and Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) conditions. Gujarat is the most vulnerable state compared to other states on the west coast of India. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is an eastward-moving stream of clouds, pressure, and precipitation near the equator that occurs every 30 to 60 days. It is called the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO).
Due to which reasons cyclones are increasing in the Arabian Sea?
According to the Indian Institute of Science Education and Research, cyclones in the Arabian Sea have increased over the past two decades due to global warming. Due to several factors like greenhouse gas concentration, earth temperature, wind direction, there has been an increase in the number of very severe cyclonic storms and super cyclonic storms in the Arabian Sea even after monsoon. In 2019 alone, five cyclonic storms were observed in the Arabian Sea. So let's find out what causes the increase in the number of cyclones.
1. Increase in sea surface temperature: Global warming has increased both the number and intensity of cyclones. Due to this, the Arabian Sea remains warm.
2. Excess energy: Rising temperatures provide abundant energy to strengthen cyclones in the Arabian Sea. Cyclone Taute thus developed into a super-severe cyclone in just 2 days. Because the sea water is very warm up to a depth of 50 meters.
3. Direction and gradient of ocean currents: The direction of wind and ocean currents are also important for cyclones in the Arabian Sea. For example, Cyclone Okhi was pushed from the Bay of Bengal towards the Arabian Sea due to high-level easterly winds.
4. El Nino: Another reason behind the increase in the intensity of cyclones in the Arabian Sea is the prevalence of El Nino. It provides the climatic environment for cyclone formation in the Arabian Sea. In contrast, it does not accelerate cyclone formation in the Bay of Bengal.
5. Aerosol Emissions: Anthropogenic emissions of aerosols have increased 6-fold since 1930. This has weakened the upper-level easterly winds and the lower-level southwesterly winds that determine the speed of rainfall over the Arabian Sea.
6. Late Monsoon: Another factor is the late onset of monsoon. Which leads to prolonged storms. Besides, the relative humidity of the Arabian Sea has also increased.
7. Increased moisture availability: Increased humidity creates thunderstorms. A sea surface temperature of 26°C is required for a cyclone to form. Which is more than that. The heat of the sea and the direction of the wind are also responsible for the formation of cyclones.
Why is Gujarat vulnerable to cyclones? Out of the 19 districts within 100 km of the Gujarat coast, 15 districts fall under P2 (highly vulnerable) and 2 each under P3 (moderately vulnerable) and P4 (least vulnerable). According to a report by the Gujarat Institute of Disaster Management, the coastal areas from Bhavnagar to Navsari are extremely vulnerable to cyclones. Bhavnagar and Ahmedabad fall under 'Very-High Damage Risk Zone' and rest of the districts fall under 'High Damage Risk Zone'. Besides, the coastal areas of Saurashtra and Kutch are more vulnerable to cyclones.
22 districts of Gujarat will become climate hotspots by 2050
The maximum wind speed in Gujarat reaches 118-166 kmph, which is highest on the west coast. About 1,700 villages in the state have been classified as vulnerable to cyclonic winds. According to the World Bank, 22 of Gujarat's 33 districts are at risk of becoming hotspots due to climate change by 2050. Because the temperature is expected to increase by 2 to 2.5 degrees Celsius.
Apart from heat, many factors are responsible for cyclones
Whenever the ocean gets too hot, it forms cyclones to cool itself. Now the ocean heating pattern is also changing. As the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere increases, so does the temperature. Forests are being cleared and converted to agricultural land, agricultural land is being used for urbanization and housing. Therefore, when the forest cover is changed, the amount of radiation retained by the ocean also increases.
The Taute Cyclone in 2021 caused huge devastation in Maharashtra including Gujarat.
The Taute Cyclone in 2021 caused huge devastation in Maharashtra including Gujarat.
Can mangroves and shelterbelts protect against cyclones?
Naturally, there are some options to protect people living on the coast from the wrath of cyclones. Mangrove forests protect the ecological security of coastal areas and the livelihoods of fishing and farming communities. Other tree species that form an important and valuable component for the protection of coastal areas. It is known as Shelterbelt. Mangroves and shelterbelts are powerful tools for mitigating the impact of cyclones. They also help check soil erosion and inward flow of sand. Mangroves and shelterbelts contribute to reducing casualties and property damage from storms and cyclones as they reduce the impact of sea waves, storm surges and high winds. According to the Forest Survey of India, mangroves in Gujarat covered an area of 1140 square kilometers in 2017.
3.5 inches of sea level rise in 30 years
According to a NASA study, sea surface temperatures will be at record levels in 2023. Which will affect millions of people. According to this study, the rate of sea level rise has doubled in the past ten years. While in the last 30 years, the sea level has increased by 3.5 inches. The ocean absorbs 90 percent of the heat generated by humans. Alarmingly, the water level has risen twice as fast from 2013 to 2022 as it did from 1993 to 2002.
Cyclone occurrence was rare in the Arabian Sea until 1995. Five cyclones hit the West Coast in 2019, which is usually one per year. This was the highest number of cyclones observed in the Arabian Sea. Very severe cyclones are being seen in the Arabian Sea. A very severe cyclone had never hit the Arabian Sea before the year 2000. 7 percent of the world's total tropical cyclones originate in the Arabian Sea.
The surface temperature of the Arabian Sea has increased by 1.2°C to 1.4°C in 10 years.
The surface temperature of the Arabian Sea has increased by 1.2°C to 1.4°C in 10 years.
.Gujarat experienced more than 120 cyclones in 100 years
Gujarat has faced 4 major cyclones in the last five years. Cyclone Vayu in 2019, Cyclone Nisarga in 2020, Cyclone Taute in 2021 and Cyclone Biperjoy in 2023. Earlier, Gujarat has faced four major cyclones in 20 years starting from 1998. According to the Gujarat State Climate Action Plan on Climate Change report, Gujarat has experienced more than 120 cyclones in the last 100 years. Due to this change in the temperature of the Arabian Sea, the chances of storms on the coast of Gujarat increase. Cyclones form due to warm Arabian Sea, weak monsoon and Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) conditions. Gujarat is the most vulnerable state compared to other states on the west coast of India. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is an eastward-moving stream of clouds, pressure, and precipitation near the equator that occurs every 30 to 60 days. It is called the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO).
Due to which reasons cyclones are increasing in the Arabian Sea?
According to the Indian Institute of Science Education and Research, cyclones in the Arabian Sea have increased over the past two decades due to global warming. Due to several factors like greenhouse gas concentration, earth temperature, wind direction, there has been an increase in the number of very severe cyclonic storms and super cyclonic storms in the Arabian Sea even after monsoon. In 2019 alone, five cyclonic storms were observed in the Arabian Sea. So let's find out what causes the increase in the number of cyclones.
1. Increase in sea surface temperature: Global warming has increased both the number and intensity of cyclones. Due to this, the Arabian Sea remains warm.
2. Excess energy: Rising temperatures provide abundant energy to strengthen cyclones in the Arabian Sea. Cyclone Taute thus developed into a super-severe cyclone in just 2 days. Because the sea water is very warm up to a depth of 50 meters.
3. Direction and gradient of ocean currents: The direction of wind and ocean currents are also important for cyclones in the Arabian Sea. For example, Cyclone Okhi was pushed from the Bay of Bengal towards the Arabian Sea due to high-level easterly winds.
4. El Nino: Another reason behind the increase in the intensity of cyclones in the Arabian Sea is the prevalence of El Nino. It provides the climatic environment for cyclone formation in the Arabian Sea. In contrast, it does not accelerate cyclone formation in the Bay of Bengal.
5. Aerosol Emissions: Anthropogenic emissions of aerosols have increased 6-fold since 1930. This has weakened the upper-level easterly winds and the lower-level southwesterly winds that determine the speed of rainfall over the Arabian Sea.
6. Late Monsoon: Another factor is the late onset of monsoon. Which leads to prolonged storms. Besides, the relative humidity of the Arabian Sea has also increased.
7. Increased moisture availability: Increased humidity creates thunderstorms. A sea surface temperature of 26°C is required for a cyclone to form. Which is more than that. The heat of the sea and the direction of the wind are also responsible for the formation of cyclones.
Why is Gujarat vulnerable to cyclones? Out of the 19 districts within 100 km of the Gujarat coast, 15 districts fall under P2 (highly vulnerable) and 2 each under P3 (moderately vulnerable) and P4 (least vulnerable). According to a report by the Gujarat Institute of Disaster Management, the coastal areas from Bhavnagar to Navsari are extremely vulnerable to cyclones. Bhavnagar and Ahmedabad fall under 'Very-High Damage Risk Zone' and rest of the districts fall under 'High Damage Risk Zone'. Besides, the coastal areas of Saurashtra and Kutch are more vulnerable to cyclones.
Bipperjoy lasted the longest
Cyclone Biparjoy's total time from formation to landfall in Gujarat was 10 days and 18 hours, the longest ever for a cyclone in the Arabian Sea. Previously the longest duration cyclone in the Arabian Sea was Kyar, which lasted for 9 days and 15 hours in October 2019. Generally, the average duration of a cyclone is four to five days. This means that the longer a cyclone stays in the ocean, the more energy it receives from the ocean. Due to which the damage is increased.22 districts of Gujarat will become climate hotspots by 2050
The maximum wind speed in Gujarat reaches 118-166 kmph, which is highest on the west coast. About 1,700 villages in the state have been classified as vulnerable to cyclonic winds. According to the World Bank, 22 of Gujarat's 33 districts are at risk of becoming hotspots due to climate change by 2050. Because the temperature is expected to increase by 2 to 2.5 degrees Celsius.
Apart from heat, many factors are responsible for cyclones
Whenever the ocean gets too hot, it forms cyclones to cool itself. Now the ocean heating pattern is also changing. As the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere increases, so does the temperature. Forests are being cleared and converted to agricultural land, agricultural land is being used for urbanization and housing. Therefore, when the forest cover is changed, the amount of radiation retained by the ocean also increases.
The Taute Cyclone in 2021 caused huge devastation in Maharashtra including Gujarat.
The Taute Cyclone in 2021 caused huge devastation in Maharashtra including Gujarat.
Can mangroves and shelterbelts protect against cyclones?
Naturally, there are some options to protect people living on the coast from the wrath of cyclones. Mangrove forests protect the ecological security of coastal areas and the livelihoods of fishing and farming communities. Other tree species that form an important and valuable component for the protection of coastal areas. It is known as Shelterbelt. Mangroves and shelterbelts are powerful tools for mitigating the impact of cyclones. They also help check soil erosion and inward flow of sand. Mangroves and shelterbelts contribute to reducing casualties and property damage from storms and cyclones as they reduce the impact of sea waves, storm surges and high winds. According to the Forest Survey of India, mangroves in Gujarat covered an area of 1140 square kilometers in 2017.
3.5 inches of sea level rise in 30 years
According to a NASA study, sea surface temperatures will be at record levels in 2023. Which will affect millions of people. According to this study, the rate of sea level rise has doubled in the past ten years. While in the last 30 years, the sea level has increased by 3.5 inches. The ocean absorbs 90 percent of the heat generated by humans. Alarmingly, the water level has risen twice as fast from 2013 to 2022 as it did from 1993 to 2002.
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